Heat pump vs natural gas: which is cheaper to run?
Running-cost comparison · EIA fuel prices · ENERGY STAR energy math
In our reference 2,000 sq ft scenario, a heat pump runs cheaper than natural gas in 16 of 51 US states. Natural gas is the toughest competitor for a heat pump because it is the cheapest heating fuel per BTU in much of the US. The result flips state by state. The exact answer turns on your electricity price, your natural gas price and the heat pump's seasonal COP — run it in the calculator. Estimate, not a quote.
Source: EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (residential). Data as of June 2026.
Why the energy math matters
Natural gas costs about $1.40-$2.60 per therm (100,000 BTU) at residential rates - among the cheapest heat per BTU available.
To compare fairly we convert everything to delivered BTU using the ENERGY STAR constants (1 therm = 100,000 BTU, 1 kWh = 3,412 BTU, 1 gal oil = 138,500 BTU, 1 gal propane = 91,500 BTU), divide by each system's efficiency, and multiply by the fuel price.
Worked example — New York
A 2,000 sq ft New York home (~56 MMBTU/yr, assumed seasonal COP 2.4) at EIA prices: a heat pump costs about $1,952/year to run versus $1,075/year with 95% AFUE gas furnace.
| System | Annual energy cost (NY) | Annual use |
|---|---|---|
| Heat pump | $1,952/yr | 6,839 kWh |
| 95% AFUE gas furnace | $1,075/yr | 589 therms |
Source: EIA fuel prices + ENERGY STAR conversions. Data as of June 2026.
State-by-state spread
How the heat-pump-vs-natural gas comparison looks across a spread of states (reference 2,000 sq ft home):
| State | Heat pump $/yr | natural gas $/yr | Heat-pump result |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | $1,952 | $1,075 | $878/yr more |
| California | $489 | $337 | $152/yr more |
| Massachusetts | $2,066 | $1,544 | $522/yr more |
| Texas | $240 | $400 | Saves $159/yr |
| Illinois | $1,290 | $688 | $602/yr more |
| Washington | $543 | $594 | Saves $51/yr |
See your exact state on its state page, or all four head-to-heads in compare fuels.
Frequently asked questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than natural gas?
In our reference 2,000 sq ft scenario, a heat pump runs cheaper than natural gas in 16 of 51 US states. Against cheap natural gas the result flips by state - high-electricity states can favour gas. Use the calculator with your own prices and COP.
Why does a heat pump beat natural gas on running cost?
Natural gas costs about $1.40-$2.60 per therm (100,000 BTU) at residential rates - among the cheapest heat per BTU available. A heat pump delivers heat at a "COP" of 2-3, meaning each kWh of electricity moves 2-3 kWh of heat, so its effective cost per delivered BTU is low even when electricity is not especially cheap.
What efficiency assumptions are used here?
This comparison assumes a 95% AFUE gas furnace and a climate-appropriate heat-pump seasonal COP (2.0 very cold to 3.2 mild). All assumptions are editable in the calculator and disclosed on the methodology page.
Keep exploring
Sources & accuracy
Prices from EIA (U.S. public domain); energy constants from ENERGY STAR Thermal Energy Conversions. Comparisons are estimates based on assumed efficiencies and a reference home — your result depends on your home, equipment, climate and rates. Verify with an HVAC professional. See methodology and disclaimer.
Last updated: 2026-06-29